Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23bd68a8b8f2791e1181ae654b242dd8b7b6714f9d708912d342dc276e736724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,328 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked No | 1c | 2,213$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…ba96backed Yes | 39c | 1,680$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…d078backed No | 61c | 1,680$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 38c | 936.51$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.28 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 71c | 548.37$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 44c | 541.36$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.9 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 465.12$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 359.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 47c | 357.2$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.18 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 328.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 46c | 321.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.88 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 38c | 317.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.45 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 40c | 310$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 69c | 288.67$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 63c | 218.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.6 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 210$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 204$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 36c | 199.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 199.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 38c | 194.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.91 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 64c | 183.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 182.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 38c | 165.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 32c | 155.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 69c | 146$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 137.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 48c | 130.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 42c | 124.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 113$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 65c | 112.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 108.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 106.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 23c | 103.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 56c | 101.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 39c | 100.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 63c | 98.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 36c | 98.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 95.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 39c | 92.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 38c | 91.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 41c | 88.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 87.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 85.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 37c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 78.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 76.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 31c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 52c | 72.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 71.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 67c | 69.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 69.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 32c | 64.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 59c | 64.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 62.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3712…f40ebacked No | 41c | 60.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…faa1backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 59.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1659…cda7backed Yes | 42c | 58.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…04b6backed No | 61c | 58.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 49c | 55.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 47c | 53.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 53.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 48.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 63c | 47.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 62c | 45.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 26c | 45.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 65c | 44.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 44.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 65c | 44.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 34c | 44.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 38c | 41.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…9c0ebacked No | 61c | 41.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 41c | 36.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 37c | 35.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 39c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…5d51backed No | 62c | 31.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…b10bbacked Yes | 38c | 31.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.