Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02b93bcc47857cd60c4759912c98b3dffd1f6ca5c3c578fefdf5f631924cf705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked Yes | 12c | 16,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,080 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…d6d5backed Yes | 35c | 3,057$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…6453backed Yes | 32c | 3,020$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 1,732$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,615$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…4b84backed No | 65c | 1,562$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853f…28efbacked No | 68c | 1,520$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…ff7abacked No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…d12cbacked No | 65c | 1,495$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 670.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 5c | 421.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…2af2backed No | 75c | 401.68$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 209.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 77c | 180.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 163.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes | 76c | 155.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 60c | 143.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 17c | 141.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 137.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 128.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…0940backed No | 80c | 127.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 52c | 126.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 122.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 11c | 112.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 107.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 74c | 106.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 50c | 90.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 89.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 41c | 89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 40c | 88.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 88.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 55c | 86.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 85.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 81.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 16c | 80.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 28c | 50.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 75c | 49.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…c03ebacked Yes | 25c | 45.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +305.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 40.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb4…ec72backed Yes | 44c | 31.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…6e5dbacked Yes | 61c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 23.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 71c | 20.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…c856backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca1…c1bebacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 72c | 15.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 14.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.