Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa353fb039b5ab36dc303030ceae88f134299816aeb453b03786b88a0bc3f0e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a1c…a4f5backed Yes | 19c | 3,840$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed2…ece9backed Yes | 17c | 3,674$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,960$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 569.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 549.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed Yes | 9c | 491.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 386.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 21c | 299.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 283.71$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 21c | 249.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 177.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 149.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 136.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 16c | 102.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 91.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 80c | 87.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 86.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 67.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 19c | 60.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 59.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 35.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 79c | 31.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 79c | 31.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 78c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.