Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x555537b4ed526993aa2f49ca2b218c2885b94cb4c3a836a95ab3228fce7ebcf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 940.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 591.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 483.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 482.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…9684backed Yes | 4c | 459.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d7…cf20backed Yes | 18c | 410.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 9c | 397.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 387.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 379.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 374.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 6c | 350.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 7c | 348.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked Yes | 4c | 335.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 11c | 333.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 5c | 256.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399e…de29backed Yes | 4c | 246.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 6c | 195.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 10c | 181$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 32c | 171.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 19c | 155.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 79c | 139.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 13c | 132.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…58bdbacked Yes | 11c | 89.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 76c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked No | 80c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…ed97backed No | 78c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.