Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36aff1ad4991b4e275d1ea36a96601bd5fa7539d1a30fa4265443b89728fa2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 1,203$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 630$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Yes | 5c | 318.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 295.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 38c | 234.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 62c | 190.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 46c | 152.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 152.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 151.02$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 75c | 150.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 147.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 129.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 9c | 129.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 117.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 115.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 57c | 112.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 36c | 101.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…90ebbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 52c | 99.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 28c | 93.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 88.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 83.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 53c | 82.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 34c | 73.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 54c | 64.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 33c | 61.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…d42ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…e3c8backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 56.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 34c | 54.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 56c | 53.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 32c | 49.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 39c | 45.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 51c | 44.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 37c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 77c | 38.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 79c | 37.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 38c | 35.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 29c | 34.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 43c | 34.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 60c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 31.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 28.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 28.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 57c | 26.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 44c | 26.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 59c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…7311backed No | 76c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 38°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.