Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0a6cee8028dfda5a1a22bc9e9d6ab0ce65e1f438643f9a2ab10379739a5c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,251 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 0c | 24,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e91…134ebacked No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 4,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 2,111$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 76c | 851.32$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.32 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 34c | 710.27$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.69 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 695.64$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 72c | 583.99$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 506.63$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.87 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 30c | 499.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…36bbbacked No | 70c | 430.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 25c | 398.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.09 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 394.3$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 38c | 373.76$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 29c | 309$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.33 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 299.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 271.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 32c | 249.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 242.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.09 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 241.9$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 237.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 233.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 226.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 30c | 209.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 197.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 25c | 194.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 171.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 29c | 171.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…711bbacked No | 65c | 162.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 149.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 75c | 149.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 35c | 138.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 136.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 131.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 124.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed Yes | 36c | 121.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4c…b6bcbacked Yes | 27c | 120.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 116.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked No | 75c | 114.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 26c | 113.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 27c | 110.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…c0ecbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +158.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 108.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Yes | 28c | 106.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 74c | 104$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…6b0cbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 26c | 99.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c77abacked Yes | 33c | 98.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 94.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed No | 64c | 94.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 84.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 70c | 83.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked No | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 65c | 77.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 29c | 76.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked No | 66c | 75.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b7…bfe9backed No | 68c | 74.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed No | 75c | 73.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…c1bbbacked No | 70c | 71.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 63.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 66c | 63.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 62.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…abc8backed No | 68c | 62.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 33c | 59.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8648backed No | 68c | 58.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 35c | 57.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 25c | 55.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 37c | 54.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 66c | 54.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…3698backed No | 68c | 52.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…a49cbacked Yes | 37c | 52.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 45c | 50.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 50.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…95c0backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 56c | 47.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed Yes | 28c | 45.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 79c | 44.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 43.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…0822backed Yes | 36c | 42.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 41.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 40.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.