Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7f5785e85e03adce8b1118289ec6656c5c5065e7f823cee6ec92cf17e43392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,740 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1232…d20abacked Yes | 0c | 11,110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 2c | 4,851$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…7ee8backed Yes | 5c | 2,171$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 45c | 1,300$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 4c | 1,072$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 54c | 950.33$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 55c | 685.09$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.27 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 668.26$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 55c | 543.81$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.1 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 47c | 533.11$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.7 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed Yes | 75c | 532.77$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 51c | 487.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 48c | 416.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.03 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…509fbacked Yes | 71c | 355.84$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 49c | 334.35$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 315.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.61 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 45c | 307.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.18 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 9c | 304.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 77c | 299.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 70c | 298.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.87 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 278.5$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 63c | 271.97$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 24c | 264$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.86 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 63c | 237.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 232.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 48c | 208$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…64f3backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 44c | 199.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 54c | 185.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484e…9ed0backed Yes | 55c | 182.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 21c | 174.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.68 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Yes | 70c | 174.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 58c | 172.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…f441backed No | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 51c | 155.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 51c | 155.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed Yes | 53c | 152.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 50c | 144.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 63c | 143.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 51c | 140.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 45c | 139.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 74c | 137.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…100dbacked Yes | 62c | 136.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edf…f609backed Yes | 74c | 132.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 132.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked Yes | 66c | 118.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 77c | 117.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 62c | 108.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed Yes | 56c | 108.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 44c | 107.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 105.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 51c | 104.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 57c | 103.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 101.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611d…0206backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 47c | 99.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 99.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 52c | 96.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 58c | 86.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 86.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 54c | 85.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 38c | 84.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b31…7031backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 61c | 77.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 38c | 69.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 25c | 68.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…9fe3backed No | 49c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 67.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 66.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 56c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 44c | 62.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 56c | 61.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 41c | 61.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…1f39backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 57c | 58.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 45c | 58.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 69c | 57.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 56.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.