TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$267,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes59c12,183$7,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,197.444637%17 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes46c10,185$4,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,673.810043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No46c7,780$3,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,234.179233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes32c7,685$2,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.366230.6%19 W · 43 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No46c7,464$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,055.1915844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes31c5,702$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.653222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f2…1762backed Yes45c5,604$2,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,529.148812.5%11 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes29c5,500$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.9963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes45c5,135$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,302.0421429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes29c5,108$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.0340519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No48c4,516$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.6956329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes29c4,135$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.79348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c64…9eb1backed Yes1c4,008$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes1c3,944$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.44688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes36c3,568$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.362516%4 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0a…d4e5backed Yes4c3,467$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+149.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes38c3,434$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.9418726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes23c3,359$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.6763021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No49c3,088$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.858148.1%39 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No38c2,731$1,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.176216.1%10 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No53c2,679$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.347265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes33c2,615$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.5366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes33c2,571$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.4614928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes47c2,550$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.0156817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347c…6b1fbacked Yes70c2,228$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes42c2,215$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.619035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes32c2,198$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.462713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No50c2,165$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.089057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes29c2,066$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.799410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c2,027$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.2376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes28c1,900$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.7239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No38c1,850$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.094944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes53c1,822$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.6343719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes49c1,812$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.6168615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c79…50c4backed Yes56c1,771$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c1,607$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.5530854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes40c1,600$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.174226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked No67c1,590$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.889926.3%26 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes42c1,500$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.3520432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked No48c1,376$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.0413235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c1,365$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.9519756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c1,301$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.832,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes70c1,289$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.494850%24 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No50c1,266$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.1316750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ce…f82bbacked No46c1,234$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.242540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No60c1,200$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.7770616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No45c1,165$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.0121959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No51c1,162$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.821757.6%125 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c1,153$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.078532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c1,150$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.7938648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes28c1,145$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.988545.9%39 W · 46 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17c7…7abbbacked Yes56c1,140$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No68c1,137$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.5513430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes29c1,099$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.6857222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed No38c1,035$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.993221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0791…385bbacked Yes45c1,000$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6905024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4106839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes40c980.96$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.4487618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes14c939.58$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4175122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes34c909.96$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c893$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9823955.2%132 W · 107 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes29c858.72$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.3427024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes31c855.71$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.322325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes47c843.1$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.0529227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes48c809$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1535024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes29c799.99$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22815929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes33c798.84$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5815631.4%49 W · 107 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c793.21$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.5121732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No51c765.74$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.271,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes68c740.34$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes41c731.61$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6615136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes43c728.34$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.5657420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No51c709.99$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.5214451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No79c698.11$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1710325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…26e8backed No73c665.31$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.134526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No68c637.38$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.482339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No55c629.96$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.4719124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes65c619.05$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked No50c587.72$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.6717335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3384…0344backed No80c581.68$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes38c565$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9312542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No69c554.32$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.647233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes35c549.02$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8531224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ac6…0465backed Yes53c541.91$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2855156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No46c540$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.620226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes42c531.64$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8323222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…60cbbacked Yes64c520$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.41553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b2e…716bbacked No68c509.97$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1de4…9f53backed No56c509.94$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.379746.4%45 W · 52 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x338d…6fd4backed No44c503.48$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.541926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes46c503.13$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9750828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025211.5%29 W · 223 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes20c500$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.551410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked No39c499.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.994146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked No43c491.18$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.0478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes32c472$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.646930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes47c461.91$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.031526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.