Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef39cc47efa963e270fc84195d017fc22e2d237aa02782ec437c25ea177570b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $286,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 59c | 12,183$7,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,197.44 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 46c | 10,185$4,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,673.8 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 46c | 7,780$3,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,234.17 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 32c | 7,685$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.36 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 46c | 7,464$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,055.19 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 31c | 5,702$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.6 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 45c | 5,604$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.14 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 29c | 5,500$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.99 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 45c | 5,135$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.04 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 5,108$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.03 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 48c | 4,516$2,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,347.69 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked Yes | 29c | 4,135$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.7 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…9eb1backed Yes | 1c | 4,008$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,944$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes | 36c | 3,568$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.36 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…d4e5backed Yes | 4c | 3,467$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 38c | 3,434$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.94 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 23c | 3,359$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.67 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 3,088$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.85 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 38c | 2,731$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.17 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 2,679$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.34 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 33c | 2,615$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.53 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,571$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.46 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 47c | 2,550$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.01 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…6b1fbacked Yes | 70c | 2,228$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,215$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.61 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,198$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.4 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 2,165$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.08 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,066$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.7 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 2,027$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.23 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,900$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.72 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 38c | 1,850$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.09 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 53c | 1,822$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.63 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 49c | 1,812$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.61 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…50c4backed Yes | 56c | 1,771$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 1,607$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.55 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…2041backed Yes | 40c | 1,600$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.17 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 67c | 1,590$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.88 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,500$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.35 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 48c | 1,376$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.04 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 1,365$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.95 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 1,301$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.83 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,289$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.49 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 1,266$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.13 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ce…f82bbacked No | 46c | 1,234$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.24 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 60c | 1,200$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.77 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 45c | 1,165$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.01 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 1,162$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.8 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 1,153$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.07 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 1,150$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.79 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,145$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.98 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…7abbbacked Yes | 56c | 1,140$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 68c | 1,137$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.55 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,099$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.68 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…0111backed No | 38c | 1,035$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…385bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 40c | 980.96$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.44 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 14c | 939.58$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 34c | 909.96$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 893$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 29c | 858.72$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.34 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 31c | 855.71$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 47c | 843.1$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.05 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 809$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.15 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 29c | 799.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 33c | 798.84$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 793.21$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 51c | 765.74$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.27 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes | 68c | 740.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 41c | 731.61$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.66 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 43c | 728.34$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.56 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 709.99$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.52 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 79c | 698.11$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed No | 73c | 665.31$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 68c | 637.38$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 55c | 629.96$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.47 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 65c | 619.05$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 50c | 587.72$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.67 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3384…0344backed No | 80c | 581.68$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 38c | 565$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.93 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 69c | 554.32$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.64 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 35c | 549.02$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.85 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 53c | 541.91$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 46c | 540$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 42c | 531.64$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.83 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…60cbbacked Yes | 64c | 520$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…716bbacked No | 68c | 509.97$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed No | 56c | 509.94$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.37 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…6fd4backed No | 44c | 503.48$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 46c | 503.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.97 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 20c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 39c | 499.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked No | 43c | 491.18$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.04 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 32c | 472$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 47c | 461.91$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.