TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Vici Gaming, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9772…4867backed Vici Gaming78c9,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick69cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Nemesis45c5,955$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.7255157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Vici Gaming1c5,555$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.77449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Nemesis23c4,214$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.499844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Nemesis22c2,538$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.6760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked Team Nemesis22c2,222$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.164346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Vici Gaming62c2,174$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.574148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Team Nemesis69c1,456$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.052161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Team Nemesis39c1,300$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7938432.1%27 W · 57 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Nemesis35c1,278$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.246535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a60…3170backed Vici Gaming63c1,108$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.746046.7%28 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x65b6…2108backed Vici Gaming6c1,094$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6121751.6%112 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Nemesis49c874.54$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.4462650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Vici Gaming47c813.4$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.21,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Vici Gaming63c796.83$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50215345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa340…409bbacked Vici Gaming43c789.85$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.661353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis28c775.82$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.142,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Team Nemesis42c771.35$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.769444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Vici Gaming60c686.35$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.419552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Vici Gaming61c615.48$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3771030%3 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed Vici Gaming45c577.14$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.713237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed Vici Gaming55c549.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.496936.2%25 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Vici Gaming44c522$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.518649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Team Nemesis46c515.17$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.4857455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadd…3955backed Team Nemesis37c507.37$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.73844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Nemesis40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30040014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7abc…9ff7backed Vici Gaming65c463.08$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012020%4 W · 16 L-5.5wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-62.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Vici Gaming57c430$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.356159%36 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+44.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Vici Gaming56c400$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22373743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Vici Gaming68c375$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25517251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Vici Gaming67c360.93$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.2287645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…7736backed Vici Gaming42c345.45$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.66616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Team Nemesis64c311.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.116152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Nemesis20c299.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.9969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Vici Gaming50c298.24$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8961057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Nemesis33c293.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.3726661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f9…d587backed Team Nemesis22c284.9$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.222231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f72…9117backed Vici Gaming73c272$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Nemesis67c264.07$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0726957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Nemesis44c253.4$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8929245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Vici Gaming76c249.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb79…6274backed Vici Gaming75c240.03$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0217152%89 W · 82 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f7…8917backed Team Nemesis47c239.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.193053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Team Nemesis63c239.41$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4155561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Team Nemesis55c235.04$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7937549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa824…c9fcbacked Vici Gaming64c234.38$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018053.3%96 W · 84 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis35c215.11$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.971,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Nemesis47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10646451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4c…1362backed Team Nemesis34c197.78$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+167.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Vici Gaming65c185.69$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5473554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Vici Gaming56c179.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7953634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Team Nemesis63c172.52$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0312862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed Team Nemesis44c171.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.311845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Vici Gaming55c170$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.567853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…0b35backed Vici Gaming59c169.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…3248backed Team Nemesis50c169.93$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.68726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Team Nemesis48c166.14$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1422534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Vici Gaming61c162.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9914965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Vici Gaming51c161.37$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7631245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Vici Gaming47c159.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.262,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Vici Gaming40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6079343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61d9…e0cebacked Vici Gaming30c149.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.356150.8%31 W · 30 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+9.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1b0…5e03backed Vici Gaming53c147.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.73850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a6…7a2cbacked Vici Gaming80c140.43$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Vici Gaming59c135$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3338649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Vici Gaming51c134.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7795841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…8229backed Vici Gaming40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.533743.6%147 W · 190 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351f…3629backed Vici Gaming78c128.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Vici Gaming78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed7…60cbbacked Vici Gaming80c120$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96825%2 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-56.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fcc…5b93backed Team Nemesis71c118.31$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.311442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…540bbacked Team Nemesis45c112.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a9…d58bbacked Team Nemesis46c109.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…8a9bbacked Vici Gaming45c105.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Vici Gaming61c104$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.447753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae1…cb4dbacked Team Nemesis18c103.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.42650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Team Nemesis54c102.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2213557.8%78 W · 57 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d9e…653ebacked Vici Gaming36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.051877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Vici Gaming62c99.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9912061.7%74 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Vici Gaming45c99.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6721062.4%131 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed Vici Gaming45c95.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437753.2%41 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Team Nemesis31c88.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8514142.6%60 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb43…cc2ebacked Vici Gaming65c87.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.97450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…6fe0backed Team Nemesis37c86.35$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.427548%132 W · 143 L-1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed Vici Gaming39c82.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.94862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa918…8d4bbacked Vici Gaming53c82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460e…607cbacked Vici Gaming73c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a1…5d57backed Vici Gaming29c77.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd574…bfdcbacked Vici Gaming53c76.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d79…899abacked Vici Gaming46c75.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.621136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Team Nemesis66c70.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9315452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed Vici Gaming67c68.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621551.6%111 W · 104 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Team Nemesis27c66.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.23286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x425f…0f7abacked Team Nemesis30c65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.518154.7%99 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…4aeebacked Team Nemesis33c61.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+124.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Team Nemesis22c59.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0920535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af1…b0f1backed Vici Gaming68c58.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…dac9backed Vici Gaming71c56.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…6f23backed Team Nemesis70c55.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b4c…77bdbacked Vici Gaming40c55.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.