Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f49e70c3a1b9807f53ffefa04e9bf625972559e0f4e4844cdb2419cd83b64d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $618,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $606,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 3c | 35,420$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.76 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…7d89backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 37c | 17,816$6,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,531.12 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked No | 6c | 10,934$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.94 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes | 41c | 10,327$4,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,073.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…1befbacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed Yes | 34c | 8,833$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,823.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 19c | 8,724$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,072.91 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 10c | 7,393$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.57 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 6,425$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.45 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…b229backed Yes | 15c | 5,166$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,384.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +524.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed No | 0c | 5,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed No | 66c | 4,102$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.41 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed No | 21c | 4,000$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,964$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.96 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 61c | 3,698$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.23 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed Yes | 51c | 3,650$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.92 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 31c | 3,336$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.24 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3a…4580backed No | 78c | 3,265$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.7 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked No | 61c | 3,246$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.2 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 65c | 3,069$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.56 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 28c | 2,766$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 2,739$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.3 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 49c | 2,505$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.79 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed No | 6c | 2,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 74c | 2,472$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.47 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 35c | 2,433$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.15 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,340$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.63 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 23c | 2,304$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.23 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 74c | 2,228$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.42 | 177 | 17.5%31 W · 146 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…3816backed No | 47c | 2,200$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 23c | 2,179$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.94 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 29c | 2,068$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.24 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 79c | 1,999$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.24 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 31c | 1,880$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.15 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…e9f3backed No | 6c | 1,850$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 46c | 1,845$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 32c | 1,840$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.7 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 31c | 1,809$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.79 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed No | 63c | 1,774$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.69 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 46c | 1,758$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,733$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.12 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 1,720$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.05 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 56c | 1,675$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.25 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 35c | 1,636$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.2 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,584$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.43 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 6c | 1,531$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 50c | 1,500$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.22 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 1c | 1,495$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked No | 73c | 1,438$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.87 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 47c | 1,438$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.68 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 1,436$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.49 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 1,429$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.16 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…f5adbacked Yes | 15c | 1,378$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.4 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 52c | 1,350$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.91 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 21c | 1,332$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.49 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…c488backed Yes | 41c | 1,308$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.57 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…d7c0backed No | 52c | 1,300$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.98 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 22c | 1,300$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.88 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,295$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.55 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…2234backed Yes | 23c | 1,282$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 1,255$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 9c | 1,250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 1,242$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.45 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed No | 74c | 1,237$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.09 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed No | 75c | 1,232$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.63 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…41b0backed Yes | 31c | 1,224$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…356abacked Yes | 25c | 1,182$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…2d32backed Yes | 66c | 1,181$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.37 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 49c | 1,157$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.35 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 1c | 1,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…95ebbacked Yes | 68c | 1,150$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…d152backed Yes | 32c | 1,150$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…a191backed No | 50c | 1,132$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.43 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 6c | 1,119$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 12c | 1,118$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 31c | 1,113$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.29 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…0d09backed Yes | 22c | 1,106$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,100$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.75 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.91 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked No | 74c | 1,074$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…ca35backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.76 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 5c | 1,049$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed No | 48c | 1,044$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,042$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.76 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 38c | 1,028$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.84 | 146 | 25.3%37 W · 109 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 26c | 1,001$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.47 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x620d…9f02backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.99 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc3…6c57backed Yes | 56c | 991.67$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 39c | 989.1$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.1 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed No | 35c | 965.99$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.46 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 76c | 940.93$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.02 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 46c | 935.16$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.5 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes | 27c | 906.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 24c | 876.3$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.8 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.