TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$468,715
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$391,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,715 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c89,419$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4262713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c36,426$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.971,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes0c21,650$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.39923.2%23 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes0c20,168$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.325119.6%10 W · 41 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes0c16,322$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2324617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes0c16,128$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.167820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes3c13,301$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.1499410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c10,010$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3379711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes0c5,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes1c4,385$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7715221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c4,209$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.24568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes1c3,725$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0754122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,490$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.121,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5449…824fbacked Yes8c3,316$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e87…4f64backed Yes11c2,639$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.842347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c2,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c2,300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes2c2,245$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2723212.1%28 W · 204 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes7c2,200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.939723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes2c2,105$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9531722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes1c2,054$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5621122.3%47 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes1c2,005$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0713844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes8c2,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c1,841$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.6187618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes12c1,807$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0734425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes9c1,414$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1657420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c1,400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be3…44a5backed Yes7c1,396$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.54233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes6c1,392$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7715844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c1,271$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.932,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c1,234$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.831,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes14c1,217$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7763021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes4c1,100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5710629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes6c1,092$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.92166%13 W · 203 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes9c1,070$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.97704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc10…ca4ebacked Yes18c1,022$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18570%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c1,022$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.161,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6988…1b01backed Yes19c1,018$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes8c1,004$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2849919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c8…9ddabacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa340…f3d4backed Yes3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+358.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c950$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b28…5b76backed Yes1c934.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.385416.7%9 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes5c899.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes10c835.66$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6632917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes2c799.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210820.4%22 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c739.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3787917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c712.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.126915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes10c663.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6713718.2%25 W · 112 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes5c663.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.923327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2e…88f5backed Yes2c657.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310822.2%24 W · 84 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-33.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes5c599.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3548819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf240…1ac1backed Yes5c598.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.421631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes4c534.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.231216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes2c530.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3857222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x045a…b9a4backed Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes5c499.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.831743.2%137 W · 180 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes6c452.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2665311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes4c405.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7829610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes12c403.5$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4918419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7746…0ba6backed Yes4c402.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035112.8%45 W · 306 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f4…ea54backed Yes7c386.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8512828.1%36 W · 92 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes17c375.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8714912.8%19 W · 130 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes6c375$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.283542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes19c371.36$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.485930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes6c333.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.032123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes7c333.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.234035%14 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec07…ca80backed Yes18c329.89$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.385418.5%10 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+58.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e76…7b84backed Yes7c304.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.551553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304027.5%11 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+33.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99ef…ab48backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes13c283.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…eaaebacked Yes7c280.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.63938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7522…df3cbacked Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xebc7…653bbacked Yes17c260.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes7c224.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes7c208.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.497432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes16c202$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.227820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d6b…0420backed Yes23c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510129.7%30 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes23c199.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4616831.5%53 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325630.4%17 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes10c191.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.411224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes24c179.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4318321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf605…b676backed Yes11c178.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.034652.2%24 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes7c171.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214818.2%27 W · 121 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c8…7660backed Yes12c130.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.492536%9 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70da…073abacked Yes18c127.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes11c125.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.415928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef9…4665backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103724.3%9 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.