Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b24e8d9e5aee54ceb15811522a43bae88e445f2214e39d57ae72cafe256227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 19c | 237.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0415…9c0abacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 188.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 163.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…60cbbacked Yes | 31c | 161.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 26c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 13c | 147.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…36b9backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 31c | 129.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 72c | 128.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 106.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 99.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 92.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 19c | 88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 79.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 78c | 78.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 33c | 73.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 69.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 80c | 62.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 35c | 61.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 53.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 39.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 38.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 34.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 31.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 27.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…0087backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked No | 70c | 18.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 16.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.