Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa420b374bbbd0c720fb5b095f97a14aa6d024bb7b95ab6b85ea571afdd8771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $516,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $455,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 1c | 14,259$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,087$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 177 | 17.5%31 W · 146 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 11,797$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.75 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 11,233$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.67 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.16 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 5,732$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 1c | 5,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 5,180$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,920$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.56 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,732$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.34 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 0c | 3,377$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,328$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.13 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,083$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 2,950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,858$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.92 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 2,824$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.55 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 151 | 5.3%8 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 2,309$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 2,196$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…f7babacked Yes | 7c | 2,186$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,134$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 1c | 2,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e87…4f64backed Yes | 7c | 2,098$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 16c | 1,882$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.51 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed Yes | 8c | 1,882$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 9c | 1,433$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 5c | 1,429$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…a168backed Yes | 6c | 1,414$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 10c | 1,295$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…dadebacked Yes | 4c | 1,117$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 1,093$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…299fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,083$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,081$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 9c | 1,077$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.05 | 130 | 31.5%41 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 9c | 1,057$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 5c | 985.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 2c | 983.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 5c | 915.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 145 | 7.6%11 W · 134 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 9c | 903.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 8c | 803.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 788.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 769.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Yes | 10c | 700.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Yes | 18c | 690.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…ed3ebacked Yes | 16c | 689.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc491…8012backed Yes | 8c | 687.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 10c | 671.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 5c | 670.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 15c | 607.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…6593backed Yes | 5c | 560$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 7c | 537.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…56f3backed Yes | 5c | 517.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…2004backed Yes | 9c | 517.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 503.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…e343backed Yes | 3c | 501.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…2ce1backed Yes | 12c | 501.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 6c | 500.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 7c | 499.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 7c | 497.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 4c | 469.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 3c | 446.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…6e41backed Yes | 4c | 413.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…ab8abacked Yes | 9c | 387.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 199 | 30.2%60 W · 139 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…c629backed Yes | 3c | 351.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc7…653bbacked Yes | 3c | 331.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 330.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 9c | 321.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…36d5backed Yes | 5c | 301.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 301.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 12c | 295.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed Yes | 17c | 284.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked Yes | 11c | 262.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Yes | 8c | 253.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…a93dbacked Yes | 15c | 246.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 6c | 240.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 11c | 212.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 5c | 209.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…5a0dbacked Yes | 9c | 199.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 5c | 198.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 7c | 194.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 281 | 11%31 W · 250 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 7c | 193.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 191.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 9c | 183.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…f567backed Yes | 7c | 182.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 8c | 180.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 9c | 175.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 13c | 170.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.