Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x638fbab43243bd281ab803a12fc6c1204d743ce459354b26bbc2d09444b4ff3f

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $480,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $243,098

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,443 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	27,003$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	17,807$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.92	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	14,698$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.69	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	11,861$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	6c	6,043$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.93	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	10c	4,438$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.43	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	3c	4,351$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.23	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	9c	3,999$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.16	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	16c	3,997$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.46	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,833$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,749$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	1c	3,698$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.15	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	3,686$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.23	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	8c	3,500$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.5	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	15c	3,087$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.41	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	4c	3,030$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.69	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	2,987$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	18c	2,900$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.99	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	2,742$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.77	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	2,637$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.94	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	2,625$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,548$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.63	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	8c	2,500$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	4c	2,458$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.72	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	1c	2,449$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55dc…54c8backed Yes	2c	2,352$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	2,153$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.75	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	2c	2,022$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.47	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd71…2b92backed Yes	6c	1,957$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.43	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+131.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes	2c	1,880$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	1c	1,711$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.73	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	16c	1,675$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.91	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	1,591$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.65	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	1c	1,537$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	9c	1,506$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.54	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	1,485$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.39	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	4c	1,460$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.89	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	2c	1,350$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	3c	1,177$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	5c	1,133$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.26	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	5c	1,126$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.03	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x557e…d185backed Yes	18c	1,120$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	4c	1,004$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.14	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd03…60fbbacked Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	12c	982.79$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.59	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	2c	980.15$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	978.27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes	3c	954.84$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	17c	949.7$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.43	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes	19c	949.57$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.87	177	28.2%50 W · 127 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes	16c	929.2$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.67	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	888.61$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.98	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes	16c	877.22$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.35	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	856.29$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.84	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes	3c	831.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	803.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.31	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	2c	762.41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	18c	760.42$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.72	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	15c	726$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.9	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	717.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	7c	701.5$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.78	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	682.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	9c	682$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.2	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6c…2ce1backed Yes	2c	676.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	6c	658.1$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.55	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	10c	655.94$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa323…e0eebacked Yes	19c	643.3$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.23	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes	15c	604.47$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.51	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	7c	572.31$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	5c	564.32$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.16	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes	17c	540.11$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.82	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	6c	538.84$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d46…7f85backed Yes	17c	537.63$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.71	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1aa…6ba0backed Yes	17c	536.77$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.71	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b45…c593backed Yes	18c	510$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked No	80c	509.85$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.97	50	68%34 W · 16 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	506.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0617…3070backed Yes	16c	500$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	152	12.5%19 W · 133 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb313…1ce7backed Yes	16c	494.93$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.39	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	3c	485.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.06	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	17c	485.47$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.53	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	9c	471.18$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.39	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…fba3backed Yes	14c	465.83$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	16c	458$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.28	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3480…d29bbacked Yes	2c	439.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…5815backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ec…d3f7backed Yes	14c	384.51$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.33	62	11.3%7 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	19c	367.6$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26f0…1d60backed Yes	19c	367.6$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.84	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	5c	362.14$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes	14c	358$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event