TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc99e…3853backed Yes0c20,543$21 inLost-$20.5419722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c7,169$70 inLost-$69.543281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c3,795$84 inLost-$83.821,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes2c3,469$68 inLost-$67.865628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes1c3,017$44 inLost-$43.5332110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c3,004$22 inLost-$22.388610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes3c2,750$69 inLost-$68.755718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes3c2,009$50 inLost-$50.236224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes1c2,000$16 inLost-$164806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes5c1,972$90 inLost-$90.462512%3 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+272.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes3c1,880$54 inLost-$54.485326.4%14 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes2c1,466$23 inLost-$22.6478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,267$27 inLost-$27.172,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes2c1,093$27 inLost-$27.082338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes3c1,080$30 inLost-$29.9718726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c1,009$13 inLost-$13.261,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes2c999.97$15 inLost-$1525311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes3c963.41$27 inLost-$27.0818419%35 W · 149 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes1c901.73$11 inLost-$11.142116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes2c726.37$16 inLost-$16.447828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes2c690.24$13 inLost-$13.151030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes2c540.08$11 inLost-$11.16190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes3c382.95$11 inLost-$10.771468.2%12 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes4c299.98$11 inLost-$10.5916817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.