Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc064713aaa1d127fb6fddd052bf06f97724dd65e23699e45d0ae101502205d95

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $339,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,488 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc04d…9e9ebacked Yes	0c	22,811$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	21,736$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	0c	14,612$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes	0c	13,416$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	12,758$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.16	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	12,428$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,687$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	2c	5,026$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.42	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	3,172$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,824$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.99	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,750$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,847$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.15	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302f…a568backed Yes	5c	1,748$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.52	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+272.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	4c	1,636$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.87	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,606$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes	4c	1,497$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	1c	1,458$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	1,424$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	4c	1,369$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.77	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	4c	1,217$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.22	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,136$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	1,037$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe123…e140backed Yes	5c	864.92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.26	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	787.84$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.35	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	2c	770.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb4…356dbacked Yes	3c	645.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	632.16$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	3c	580.13$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	492.15$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes	3c	449.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	441.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf250…cdffbacked Yes	4c	439.31$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	4c	439.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	5c	305.06$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	259.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.17	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event