Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17d11fc65dc48bc62c5c961ee2c65db4d417240180e8b792b5893cf748fd3d90

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $669,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $418,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $669,054 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	20,000$1,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,473.81	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	12,983$1,766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,765.78	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	12,546$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.88	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	12,483$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.78	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	12,376$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.76	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	11,348$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.5	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	20c	10,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.99	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	1c	9,471$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.67	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	18c	6,985$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.79	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	6,551$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.25	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	5c	6,016$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.46	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	5,869$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.12	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…b9c5backed Yes	0c	5,675$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	4,976$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.3	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,725$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	2c	4,089$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.69	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	5c	4,054$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.97	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	12c	4,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.2	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	11c	3,993$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.65	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	17c	3,987$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.84	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	3,829$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.16	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	3,663$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.51	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	17c	3,520$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.14	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	17c	3,479$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.86	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	14c	3,222$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.62	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	3,098$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	19c	2,942$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.94	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	6c	2,860$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.9	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8815…438dbacked Yes	17c	2,854$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.06	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	11c	2,780$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.38	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	12c	2,673$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.61	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	6c	2,500$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.3	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	7c	2,342$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.78	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	20c	2,303$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.99	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	15c	2,298$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.7	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	5c	2,161$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.76	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66f0…ac16backed Yes	22c	2,079$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.09	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	2,070$1,656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.05	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes	19c	2,057$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.19	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	9c	1,999$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.96	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	17c	1,989$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.64	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	18c	1,984$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.13	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	9c	1,980$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.36	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	14c	1,940$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.24	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	8c	1,580$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.03	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	17c	1,530$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.38	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	13c	1,522$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.87	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	12c	1,443$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.74	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	1,424$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.33	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	10c	1,400$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.65	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes	19c	1,365$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.85	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	10c	1,280$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.81	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	13c	1,206$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.17	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	15c	1,200$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.7	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	21c	1,175$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.29	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	14c	1,165$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.96	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	5c	1,100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f0…0191backed Yes	16c	1,100$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	9c	1,076$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.6	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	18c	1,066$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.92	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes	10c	1,061$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.78	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	80c	1,040$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.65	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	14c	1,007$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.7	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.95	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	191	24.6%47 W · 144 L	-10.8wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	17c	999.99$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	15c	999.9$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.99	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	6c	988.97$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.34	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	18c	984.64$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.7	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb4…98c3backed Yes	2c	964.97$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	952.36$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	15c	910$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.9	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d74…a191backed Yes	3c	900$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+5.4wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	8c	885.96$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.96	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	9c	871.57$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.94	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44fc…fbbcbacked No	79c	867.47$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.17	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce6…6069backed Yes	22c	864.09$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.13	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	15c	838.32$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.75	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	2c	837.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes	13c	805.22$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.85	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	20c	805.21$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.56	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	18c	767.47$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.11	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	15c	745.28$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.71	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd5f…757ebacked Yes	12c	745.27$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.31	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	16c	733.76$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.56	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	14c	729.09$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.45	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	9c	716.88$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.71	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d7…2232backed Yes	2c	714.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	14c	705.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.75	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	20c	701.15$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.98	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes	2c	700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	123	32.5%40 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes	20c	694.91$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.18	115	29.6%34 W · 81 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2280…4ef5backed Yes	14c	672.96$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.36	82	15.9%13 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7522…df3cbacked Yes	8c	670.4$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.15	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	2c	667.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event