Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ffbda5218650465c26893fcda25ae3f9ff83833795097c2271d103a34b1c7e8

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $478,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $190,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	30,235$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.41	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	27,017$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.02	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	20,763$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975.31	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	0c	12,933$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	7,584$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.11	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	7,000$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	5,465$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	5,175$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.83	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,482$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.62	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x587d…e8cdbacked Yes	5c	4,197$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.16	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	3c	4,158$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.28	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,878$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.61	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,691$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.87	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes	7c	3,506$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.38	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes	3c	3,500$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	3,403$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.77	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,866$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.46	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	2,668$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.63	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	2,603$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.06	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	4c	2,464$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.16	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	2,382$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	2,308$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.22	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	2,233$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,079$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	2,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	3c	1,980$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.7	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	5c	1,856$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.76	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	1,798$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.41	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	4c	1,686$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.49	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed Yes	7c	1,614$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.63	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	5c	1,554$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.66	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	1,553$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.62	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	2c	1,550$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,457$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,431$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.17	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	5c	1,397$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.97	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	5c	1,338$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.81	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea7b…2004backed Yes	7c	1,312$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.69	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	1c	1,300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	1,240$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.45	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,208$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.75	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	4c	1,193$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.74	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	5c	1,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34d…5461backed Yes	3c	1,099$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.98	69	31.9%22 W · 47 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	4c	1,041$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.55	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	5c	984.34$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	950.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes	6c	912.04$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.87	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	5c	904.19$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	4c	878.51$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.23	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	2c	812.47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	3c	784.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d00…b0c2backed Yes	4c	734.9$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.76	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	6c	730.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.19	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	5c	721.28$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	698.87$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	4c	687.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.48	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	5c	673.83$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.1	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	5c	673.34$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.54	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb015…42c3backed Yes	3c	666.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	71	14.1%10 W · 61 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	665.07$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	651.84$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.21	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…5ea3backed Yes	5c	645.03$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	50	22%11 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	6c	617.3$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.13	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	596.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	2c	560$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	4c	556.14$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.69	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac3e…e416backed Yes	6c	550.08$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.08	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	532.17$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	525.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	5c	522.22$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.45	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	511.27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	493.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce6…6069backed Yes	6c	480.2$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.17	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	469.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	4c	440.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa52…780dbacked Yes	6c	438.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	15cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14b2…ac16backed Yes	6c	409.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.81	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fc…d760backed Yes	7c	393.35$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.21	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	4c	392.42$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	108	40.7%44 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	3c	382.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ec…d3f7backed Yes	5c	378.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.73	62	11.3%7 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	5c	371.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.41	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes	4c	348.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	344.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	6c	343.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.57	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	5c	330.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdd…dacebacked Yes	6c	323.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba7…8ca5backed Yes	7c	317.58$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	5c	306$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+69.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22c3…b145backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	64	14.1%9 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	5c	299.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes	5c	278.92$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	50	20%10 W · 40 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Yes	6c	270.3$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	7c	269.12$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event