Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6476a06c1458028d5923d3e1c72d4dcd98122747f335101f3408f5c08aa22ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 29c | 51,244$14,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,896.73 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 71c | 15,712$11,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.31 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 6c | 13,109$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.93 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 69c | 12,587$8,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,949.53 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed No | 44c | 8,687$3,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 33c | 6,569$2,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 76c | 5,075$3,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…457ebacked No | 1c | 3,605$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed No | 33c | 3,418$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 50c | 3,164$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.04 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 70c | 3,090$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.23 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 27c | 3,064$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.28 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 63c | 3,016$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.86 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed No | 4c | 2,038$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 3c | 1,844$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 8c | 1,486$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.53 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 18c | 1,484$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 76c | 1,388$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.28 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 71c | 1,330$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.15 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,276$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 1,222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 7c | 1,197$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 70c | 991.72$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.66 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 28c | 983.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.12 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 71c | 975.75$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.46 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 74c | 957.16$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.02 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 15c | 928.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 30c | 913$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 35cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 66c | 828.61$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.18 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 70c | 822.76$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 70c | 784.5$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…fa65backed No | 5c | 738.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 38c | 699.34$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…3442backed No | 5c | 665.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 636.33$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 30c | 613.75$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.36 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 42c | 607.9$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.32 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfc…07b0backed Yes | 70c | 589.56$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 68c | 582.29$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.63 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 27c | 550.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 78c | 526.82$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed No | 28c | 517.84$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 61c | 502.8$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 51c | 420.8$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed No | 27c | 377.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…d896backed Yes | 70c | 375.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 47c | 370$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 69c | 350.38$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 74c | 338.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 6c | 316.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 17c | 298.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 72c | 293.09$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 10c | 283.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 29c | 274$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 19c | 255.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 71c | 255.28$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 5c | 242.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed No | 15c | 227.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed Yes | 71c | 218.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 72c | 212.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 71c | 210.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 200.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 74c | 199$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 69c | 197.42$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes | 71c | 194.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 6c | 190.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 76c | 185.12$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 38c | 183.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…06d8backed No | 26c | 174.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…1420backed Yes | 77c | 172.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed No | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 71c | 164.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed Yes | 73c | 158$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…3652backed Yes | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 61c | 148.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…4ec9backed Yes | 71c | 135.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 134.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 15c | 128.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 77c | 126.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 123.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995b…1bd8backed Yes | 80c | 122.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 77c | 120.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 12c | 119.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…2704backed No | 12c | 116.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…8ed2backed No | 21c | 109.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 104.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 55c | 104.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…6c65backed No | 36c | 103.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…5dd0backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…a259backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 65c | 96.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 75c | 96.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?this page
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.