Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b5b4c7d87d78eb81c3dd640f57ebc6cd5b5338573235732febffb035a4ca416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 9,536$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 894.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 28c | 437.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 249.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Yes | 15c | 248.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 20c | 212.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 12c | 181.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 14c | 128.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…5907backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 110.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 99.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked Yes | 15c | 97.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 17c | 62.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 80c | 57.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…a259backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…7123backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec1…75c9backed Yes | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?this page
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 65m and 70m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 60m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.