MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Netherlands
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8be5ca45bbbe57b31e262963b67edcb3e3f8c7ee81c6258861cbfeb544caf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Venezuelaof Venezuela, Netherlands
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,222 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Netherlands | 19c | 15,549$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.41 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Netherlands | 0c | 8,676$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Netherlands | 20c | 7,145$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.89 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…8503backed Venezuela | 80c | 6,300$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Netherlands | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc2…eaefbacked Venezuela | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Netherlands | 19c | 2,729$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Netherlands | 20c | 2,513$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.6 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Netherlands | 21c | 1,335$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.32 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…df78backed Venezuela | 80c | 1,317$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.19 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Venezuela | 80c | 1,253$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.27 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Netherlands | 6c | 1,054$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Netherlands | 15c | 1,013$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Venezuela | 79c | 976.05$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Venezuela | 79c | 937.13$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.56 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Netherlands | 15c | 770.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.82 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Netherlands | 19c | 763.28$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Netherlands | 20c | 585$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Netherlands | 20c | 493.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Netherlands | 18c | 422.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Netherlands | 19c | 410.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…926ebacked Netherlands | 20c | 401$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Netherlands | 4c | 396.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Venezuela | 80c | 383.39$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Netherlands | 19c | 314.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Netherlands | 6c | 307.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…da79backed Venezuela | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed Netherlands | 19c | 271.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a57…dd98backed Netherlands | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Netherlands | 19c | 235.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…b3babacked Netherlands | 22c | 227.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Venezuela | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…6466backed Netherlands | 20c | 192$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Netherlands | 18c | 155.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Venezuela | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Netherlands | 19c | 143.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…00b1backed Netherlands | 28c | 135.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Netherlands | 32c | 119$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Netherlands | 20c | 106.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Netherlands | 18c | 105.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Netherlands | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Netherlands | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…5394backed Netherlands | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Netherlands | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Venezuela | 68c | 98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Netherlands | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Netherlands | 21c | 85.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Netherlands | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…2704backed Netherlands | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Venezuela | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…2edfbacked Netherlands | 19c | 64.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Netherlands | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Netherlands | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Netherlands | 19c | 53.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…7f59backed Netherlands | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Venezuela | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2c…3dc9backed Netherlands | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Netherlands | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Netherlands | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…7c20backed Netherlands | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2d…b291backed Netherlands | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Venezuela | 75c | 40.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Venezuela | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Venezuela | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.