TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$245,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 341 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb9c…072bbacked No24c21,803$5,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,599.913430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes16c12,481$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,055.8363414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf0a…08e8backed Yes70c5,000$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,479.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No27c4,674$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,418.517723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes23c4,346$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.3913817.4%24 W · 114 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No32c4,136$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,792.831,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes73c4,114$2,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.2914413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No32c4,047$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.4717631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No38c3,763$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.937439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No14c3,500$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,01016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No13c3,182$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.6811512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes65c2,688$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.9138828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No27c2,679$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.9288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No44c2,557$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.0814219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed No73c2,388$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.47337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No22c2,376$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.7257621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes40c2,234$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.171040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes58c2,160$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.095930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes66c2,051$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.7431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed Yes59c2,050$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.28630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes37c2,007$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.7322926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No26c2,007$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.9288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100510%0 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14046521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked No11c2,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.985827.6%16 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes64c1,998$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.9631621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes67c1,994$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.7739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No27c1,920$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.161868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes64c1,903$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.8429331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed No42c1,828$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.7220226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd82…396ebacked No13c1,806$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.03616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No45c1,793$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.9615844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes35c1,791$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.7450319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes65c1,732$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.7766222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No42c1,668$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.2320735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes40c1,599$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.282532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.948320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes56c1,520$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.1732529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes25c1,500$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No31c1,497$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.7863821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed No18c1,448$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.855334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes53c1,320$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.573938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ad…7892backed Yes36c1,314$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes16c1,275$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.2831242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked No17c1,263$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.723823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No8c1,250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15012528%35 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+55.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No27c1,133$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.179233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes2c1,090$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.225311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes28c1,059$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.471,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes36c999.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea88…3818backed No9c999.97$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.982825%7 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed No7c951.31$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.726020%12 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed No75c926.23$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.312913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c844.97$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.5951845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92bc…06bfbacked No66c790.75$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.972157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No35c786.04$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.386524.6%16 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes50c771.46$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.5112332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes74c770.05$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.7911529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked No73c768.5$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.89926.3%26 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddab…505ebacked Yes67c733.86$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.291435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes71c712.99$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.226839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed No60c702.96$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.426033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes65c689.65$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.817324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No58c629.99$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.68634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No33c614.11$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9534425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes57c613.75$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.158528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054c…ae95backed Yes64c603.19$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.666939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No61c570.67$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0946137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ba…d348backed No20c566.01$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.161540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No19c549.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.9911831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed Yes74c537.99$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.116634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f34…89c7backed Yes56c523.58$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.386142.6%26 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x091f…672ebacked Yes74c510.49$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.971225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-65%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes70c508.08$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.815136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca86…560cbacked Yes43c500$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2138950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes40c484.9$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.069348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed No21c471.21$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.0148819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes45c431.6$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.9520129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes74c419.07$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.8618726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes52c418.56$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.1825944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf328…2b78backed Yes76c409.48$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.723360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3d…609cbacked Yes62c407.52$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No10c400$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36012424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes38c400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed No40c396.05$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.446350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes15c367.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7938614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes49c365$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.522227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes75c350.11$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0810733.6%36 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b21…4235backed Yes52c350$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe49b…d2f7backed Yes55c344.69$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617e…0ca3backed No30c343$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.578757.5%50 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes58c336.8$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3819229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c334.94$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0128723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No14c323.29$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1116941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x344a…1f8bbacked Yes72c317.99$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf366…425ebacked Yes53c317.12$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.556127.9%17 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes19c316$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0811424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes61c314.38$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9713844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked No13c306.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.259317.2%16 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.