Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecd12886c07da1ba764a617bc155fb164dd9e65ed67bd846bd7be2de13776d8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $530,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 44,501$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.77 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,622$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.35 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 10,706$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 2c | 10,101$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 9,614$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 9,220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 7c | 6,985$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.86 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,857$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 14c | 5,411$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.1 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…46c8backed Yes | 1c | 5,391$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,283$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.49 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 4c | 4,018$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,786$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,779$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 9c | 3,476$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.76 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 7c | 3,462$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.71 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 1c | 3,287$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…820cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,226$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 2c | 3,169$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Yes | 6c | 3,021$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 1c | 2,999$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 138 | 17.4%24 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 7c | 2,948$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…cb24backed Yes | 8c | 2,943$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 6c | 2,918$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 3c | 2,906$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 4c | 2,590$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 8c | 2,366$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 2,352$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 4c | 2,137$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 16c | 2,094$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.64 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,077$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,019$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.05 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,977$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,960$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…2444backed Yes | 7c | 1,944$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,924$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.23 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,834$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 4c | 1,816$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,765$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 3c | 1,748$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…3559backed Yes | 3c | 1,726$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,690$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes | 3c | 1,568$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,565$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,486$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 4c | 1,481$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 1,443$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 6c | 1,404$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 9c | 1,400$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 8c | 1,317$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 6c | 1,249$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,224$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…9eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,195$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,190$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2a…5aa6backed Yes | 8c | 1,150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed Yes | 5c | 1,142$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 4c | 1,122$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…c79dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,101$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 5c | 1,067$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,011$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 4c | 999.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 5c | 969.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 78 | 11.5%9 W · 69 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes | 12c | 954.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 4c | 927.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 889.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…bfb2backed Yes | 11c | 863.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 4c | 850.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 4c | 849.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…3bc2backed Yes | 8c | 837.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 833.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 2c | 828$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 4c | 821.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 3c | 805.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7045…0494backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 10c | 785.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 3c | 730.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 668.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 6c | 650$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 2c | 616.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…69c6backed Yes | 7c | 609.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 3c | 591.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 2c | 590.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…7d37backed Yes | 13c | 588.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 9c | 584.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 5c | 566.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 12c | 559.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 11c | 557.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 4c | 543.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 539.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 5c | 524.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5989…1d6cbacked Yes | 12c | 519.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 15c | 515.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.