TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$411,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$384,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd82…396ebacked No1c51,247$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes13c5,500$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,805.2510829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes38c4,579$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.7314413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes38c3,713$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.1553522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes68c3,569$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.3866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes21c3,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,764.9816427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes18c3,239$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.9963821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No9c3,055$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.267439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes18c3,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.9953817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes20c2,833$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.8410629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes13c2,792$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.727417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes20c2,604$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.5831722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes18c2,586$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,11688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes17c2,515$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.8688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes64c2,461$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87822926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No71c2,367$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.0413844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb7…9f50backed Yes43c2,232$953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.561040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes35c2,166$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.1913430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No20c2,150$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.931,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes24c2,140$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.731621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked Yes11c2,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7805827.6%16 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes13c1,973$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.675628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes24c1,952$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.8328526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No7c1,900$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3715844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes16c1,891$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.857621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes8c1,803$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.4810432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x102b…a7acbacked Yes17c1,689$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.053823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes70c1,679$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.517337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,666$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.928320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes39c1,500$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.0339723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x620d…9f02backed Yes13c1,500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3055824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes14c1,500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29563414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea85…efe5backed Yes40c1,482$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.36214.5%9 W · 53 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes28c1,479$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.935930.5%18 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes35c1,441$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.3920226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No2c1,364$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.547820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked Yes74c1,338$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.922290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd13d…a958backed No1c1,315$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.152326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-43.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe3ad…7892backed Yes40c1,305$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes34c1,246$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.4117631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e8…9c25backed No80c1,237$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe719…7ff8backed No79c1,200$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes17c1,151$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.011,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes51c1,140$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.4817324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed No69c1,131$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-43.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes15c1,111$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.44936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed Yes17c1,110$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.38630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…5ea3backed Yes19c1,108$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.375022%11 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes12c1,100$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.9957222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes30c1,097$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.0717628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes10c1,096$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.9545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeec3…c2a0backed No77c1,064$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.565749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes17c1,050$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.265334%18 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No16c1,046$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8950319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes6c1,000$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9403134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7c…9400backed Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90062412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes10c999.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.994944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes12c987.07$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.97875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes39c952.86$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.0732529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…be13backed No2c907.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes22c892.22$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.745819%11 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed No10c873.52$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.34267.7%2 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+254.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No13c854.07$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.751,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes10c836.81$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.9627224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes12c829.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.0615925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No7c823.77$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.498915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes15c799.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.9912332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed No80c731.28$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.4920025%50 W · 150 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed Yes38c698.28$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.626167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes26c688.1$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.5519124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfd7…b2dbbacked Yes20c683.26$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.69540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+150.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes25c681.27$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.212532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c679.67$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.922,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No43c677.31$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.711868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee76…8fcebacked Yes32c668.87$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.834517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e3d…609cbacked Yes38c616.22$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.9250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes33c595.41$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.941,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4239…5dafbacked Yes48c591.29$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.112347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed No17c578.29$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2917723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes59c575.97$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.3527647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f34…89c7backed Yes57c559.04$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.86142.6%26 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No10c547.39$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9914219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes16c547.16$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0233422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No12c545.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7116941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c37…eee6backed No62c519$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.223432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes18c515.24$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.4546521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea88…3818backed No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352825%7 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf37…2454backed Yes9c499.97$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.981353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+81%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes48c485.2$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.6125944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes23c485.2$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.5510820.4%22 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes64c476.15$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3814829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes13c461.73$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.382338.2%19 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes44c459.45$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1914332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes10c455$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.5195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes12c427.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.0711512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes11c402.5$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.9338614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes10c401.55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.594422.7%10 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…0190backed No9c399.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377820.5%16 W · 62 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes62c396.61$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.910733.6%36 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.