Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3b0da9a810332863abb94f3dd080b4072d04cfa1a5346db022f23c00db1d82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $230,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 10c | 13,033$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.2 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 11c | 11,459$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.87 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 5,935$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.09 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 11c | 4,238$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.43 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,049$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.03 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,935$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.96 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 12c | 3,635$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.95 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 11c | 3,547$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.97 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 3,325$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.68 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 15c | 3,143$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.36 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 2,700$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.94 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 2,668$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.65 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,505$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.72 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…a4e3backed Yes | 8c | 2,289$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,254$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.11 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 2,246$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…0cc2backed Yes | 15c | 1,978$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,920$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 13c | 1,837$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.53 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,770$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 11c | 1,758$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.2 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,729$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,662$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.44 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…d7c0backed No | 78c | 1,600$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.98 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 14c | 1,559$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…8229backed Yes | 11c | 1,447$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 177 | 22.6%40 W · 137 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes | 13c | 1,355$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.72 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,325$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 1,307$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 18c | 1,292$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.81 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,247$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…64f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,116$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,112$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,025$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 10c | 1,017$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…ffc9backed No | 78c | 999.99$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 16c | 963.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 948.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 15c | 931.05$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes | 11c | 835.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 35c | 758.89$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.53 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 20c | 732.02$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 7c | 725.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 13c | 705.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed Yes | 16c | 698.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 2c | 659.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 22c | 655$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 78 | 11.5%9 W · 69 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 8c | 644.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 11c | 640.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 15c | 622.22$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 9c | 596.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 6c | 588.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 5c | 586.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 4c | 549.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 9c | 548.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 9c | 505.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 4c | 504.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 496.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes | 17c | 492.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…04debacked Yes | 11c | 479.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 28c | 475.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.78 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 20c | 466.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…1c56backed Yes | 20c | 465.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c0…c100backed Yes | 18c | 445.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 11c | 442.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275b…1780backed Yes | 29c | 439.4$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.47 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 421.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 9c | 419.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 7c | 415.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 6c | 410$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 11c | 399.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…b102backed Yes | 12c | 390.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…8178backed No | 71c | 389.93$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 19c | 378.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Yes | 8c | 369.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 119 | 6.7%8 W · 111 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…cd03backed Yes | 7c | 368.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 19c | 349.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 5c | 343.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…1faebacked Yes | 19c | 332.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 18c | 321.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…0d7dbacked Yes | 6c | 320.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…62afbacked Yes | 7c | 315$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 6c | 310.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 15c | 305.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 9c | 305.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e90…f3d0backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…fb56backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 13c | 296.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 11c | 270.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…5105backed Yes | 18c | 264.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…87fbbacked Yes | 7c | 253$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 8c | 246.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes | 5c | 244.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed Yes | 19c | 241.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.