Movies · resolved market
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc63a690ad5de08ba4b13a87f0f38bf469ef5fdb327add7d537d0f9680bbf2bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 4,190$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,094$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 66c | 3,078$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.51 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 6c | 2,938$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.94 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 1c | 2,751$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc656…aa88backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…b444backed Yes | 2c | 1,730$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 2c | 1,671$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 1,553$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 5c | 1,553$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,329$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 951.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 902.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 4c | 886.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 10c | 709.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 5c | 647.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 3c | 620.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 6c | 605$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 10c | 603.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…7482backed Yes | 9c | 530$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 6c | 493$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x128c…ad12backed No | 64c | 458.31$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 4c | 455.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 8c | 328.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 6c | 314.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 297.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 243.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 238.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 21c | 167.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 7c | 140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 13c | 112.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 13c | 93.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 73.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 22c | 73.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?this page
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?No won
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.