TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49b…bdf9backed No19c8,363$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.21822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes77c6,967$5,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,627.7423639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c5,145$3,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.3847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes47c4,084$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.224746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes69c1,973$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.266639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No39c1,318$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.882142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c1,200$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3912442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No11c1,119$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb533…629fbacked No2c1,117$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No47c1,011$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.293040%12 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No61c839.76$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.2832739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No32c741.97$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.138653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed No44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30811836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb58d…b858backed No45c677$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No18c674.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.167537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No28c654.31$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.032142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fa…abcfbacked No33c630$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No10c602$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.272686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed No51c600$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.233540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c589.58$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.4510645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No5c575.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.96319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes71c573.81$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.629735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes77c554.45$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5510042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x767d…d1b3backed Yes37c550$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No50c527.11$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.5413034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No15c515.8$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.161827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c488.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.261,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No24c474.67$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3535…75b2backed No2c450$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+306.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No53c400$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2105129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes71c390$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.441233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No31c379.73$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8116737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed Yes58c379.31$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.314148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4639…3e8cbacked No58c369.06$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.811030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No12c356$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.722729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c355$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.779951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No63c306$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.781127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c299.96$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3216015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No23c292.76$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.682352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes66c268$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.67860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes77c249.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfe…bfb7backed No20c238.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes43c235.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.911825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes44c229.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.324151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Yes52c224.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No14c224.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.918638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.23348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No57c214.7$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.893721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked No54c205$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e14…553cbacked No12c204.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes51c200.61$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8513534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15812936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17823321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e76…7b84backed Yes51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.651526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x871c…a84fbacked No46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda5…414fbacked Yes40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18026431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No45c196.83$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.029851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes24c195$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.219031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10e6…74bcbacked Yes51c160.62$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…74d5backed No17c160.61$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4072…c225backed Yes53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes49c150$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.931040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaea7…f121backed No16c147.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ab…9aa1backed No17c141.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f8…71a8backed Yes51c141$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes54c129.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.614139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2004…914abacked No34c129.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes39c125$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.254930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No34c115.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.511163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c114.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes70c103.44$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No18c102$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.761154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No49c100.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.183116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7013820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8d…189cbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9764…a691backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No66c99.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.645362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbd…0535backed No40c99.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3831…afedbacked Yes19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+238.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No64c98.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.231127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No23c98.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No47c96.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2323130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes74c93.66$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.252240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c90$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.88351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…9828backed No69c81.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.377945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7d…f1f2backed No46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cec…ff6ebacked No46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes79c77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.131060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No14c74.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3414337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes54c74$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.041435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11bd…7f96backed Yes30c67.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.