Movies · resolved market
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd38f5b9fa92ee35b32f5747614eda3332be650dfd78fd0d6133796657de8db19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 5,940$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.58 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 8c | 5,669$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.93 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,280$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 5c | 1,612$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,523$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 6c | 1,494$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,420$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.6 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 33c | 1,417$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.04 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 12c | 1,392$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,201$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 79c | 1,055$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.36 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 1,036$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 63c | 965.51$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.61 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 60c | 818.83$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 799.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 9c | 726.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…629fbacked Yes | 2c | 684.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 40c | 666.51$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.54 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 73c | 663.1$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 79c | 630$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 12c | 605$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 8c | 600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 17c | 576.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 12c | 568.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 2c | 550.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 8c | 548.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 499.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 486.11$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.11 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 18c | 452.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 8c | 440.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 440$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.38 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 25c | 426.08$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 8c | 421.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…60b6backed No | 58c | 380$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 17c | 363.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 8c | 341.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 322.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 320.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 39c | 311.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 14c | 308.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 43c | 274.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 19c | 272.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 8c | 266.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 36c | 249.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 18c | 249.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 39c | 248$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…5e45backed Yes | 44c | 239.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 32c | 238.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 237.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 43c | 229.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8636…07edbacked Yes | 43c | 225$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 39c | 206$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 35c | 202.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 53c | 193.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 75c | 190.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 25c | 167.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 159.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 159.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 150.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 37c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 44c | 131.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 11c | 129.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 50c | 125$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 42c | 123$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…cfb2backed Yes | 17c | 110.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 75c | 110.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed Yes | 41c | 104.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 44c | 103.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 96.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 12c | 93.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 22c | 90.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes | 36c | 88.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed Yes | 39c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 22c | 76.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf735…9223backed No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 40c | 73.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 60c | 68.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 65.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…9624backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 33c | 55.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6895backed Yes | 32c | 52.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 45c | 51.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?this page
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?No won
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.