Movies · resolved market
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a69128908cb8878d539c5787b62dcb0a1e832308161757972e946e5999afb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f94…ddcbbacked Yes | 0c | 8,762$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,297$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,900$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,135$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,604$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…3e8cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,501$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 64c | 1,430$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.68 | 242 | 39.7%96 W · 146 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 269 | 6.3%17 W · 252 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 8c | 1,173$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 65c | 1,065$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.14 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 2c | 945.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 870.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 37c | 830$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.95 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 699.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 683.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 31c | 637.34$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 464.73$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 40c | 443.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 7c | 317.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 203 | 34%69 W · 134 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 8c | 267.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 16c | 258.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 238.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 58c | 196.7$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…35e8backed Yes | 38c | 193.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc7…90cbbacked No | 69c | 175$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…7f96backed Yes | 25c | 157.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes | 34c | 150.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…7482backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 132.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x319e…1068backed Yes | 33c | 123.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 116.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 111.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 235 | 30.6%72 W · 163 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 107.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…d265backed Yes | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 14c | 93.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 71c | 92.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…ec95backed Yes | 33c | 90.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 67c | 70.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 42c | 64.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 37c | 62.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 75c | 53.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -8.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…8c26backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…c111backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 68c | 37.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 35c | 29.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Yes | 35c | 29.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 35c | 29.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 12m?this page
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?No won
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.