Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b41f9c674964272782a8e8a7249712410c973f47dd559e487d207ee20f5d5ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 59c | 3,008$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 52c | 1,142$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.49 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 7c | 748.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 707.45$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 76c | 695.45$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 55c | 674.13$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.61 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…dc68backed Yes | 63c | 645.21$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 45c | 602.04$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.04 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 25c | 262.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…d982backed Yes | 53c | 196.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 196.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 22c | 182.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 53c | 178.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.33 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 54c | 176.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 25c | 155.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…72fabacked No | 27c | 127.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…e9a7backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 48c | 98.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 49c | 96.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 25c | 90.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 15c | 85.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 85.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 24c | 81.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked Yes | 75c | 81.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ac…bd73backed No | 59c | 71.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 33c | 63.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 68c | 62.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…ea01backed Yes | 48c | 62.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…3348backed Yes | 50c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 47.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 69c | 47.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 50c | 40.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 61c | 39.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…ad79backed Yes | 77c | 31.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 54c | 30.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…f3d7backed No | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 53c | 24.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 52c | 24.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 77c | 24.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked No | 52c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.