Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda599cf9992a8fd032db579355fb7056ed85ef35b6e085276e9c0d30d6b2b90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 49c | 676.6$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.04 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 39c | 654.76$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.43 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 54c | 630.61$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.2 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 50c | 489.39$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.42 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 64c | 357.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 49c | 352.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.44 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 75c | 343.85$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…dc68backed Yes | 48c | 322.45$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed No | 60c | 251.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 55c | 201.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 190.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.22 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f2…bbebbacked Yes | 51c | 185.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…fe0ebacked No | 54c | 177.78$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed Yes | 50c | 146.47$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 54c | 118.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…f1fbbacked Yes | 50c | 95.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a7…bc3ebacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2f…2dedbacked Yes | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…6d8abacked No | 70c | 87.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 80.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 77c | 76.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 47c | 68.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…9506backed No | 51c | 64.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 62.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked Yes | 49c | 61.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 49c | 57.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…fb8cbacked Yes | 50c | 49.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 36c | 47.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…72fabacked No | 49c | 43.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 49c | 41.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaba4…7f07backed No | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 44c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 76c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.