Movies · resolved market
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c064be8bbe6c78b76700a87d00e3543a89d5166d5f08d86c955e990ce717733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 62c | 3,741$2,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,326.09 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…7b96backed Yes | 13c | 3,442$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 25c | 2,496$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.34 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 55c | 2,325$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.46 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 1,947$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…4d82backed Yes | 21c | 1,723$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,604$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.02 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,586$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.51 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 48c | 1,560$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.06 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 36c | 1,381$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,330$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,283$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.64 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 12c | 1,079$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…beddbacked No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 11c | 783.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 496.3$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 40c | 473.2$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 33c | 464.5$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 22c | 459.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 27c | 403.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 376.28$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 40c | 368.96$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 26c | 313.93$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 15c | 278.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 278.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 47c | 276.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 32c | 275.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 42c | 220.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 47c | 212.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 38c | 205.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 80c | 205.14$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 28c | 201.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…d896backed Yes | 59c | 168.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 50c | 159.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 143.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…1c2ebacked Yes | 16c | 142.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 21c | 140.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 57c | 106.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 26c | 106.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 36c | 90.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 88.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcb…3ad6backed Yes | 45c | 87.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 63c | 81.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 55c | 71.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…de1abacked Yes | 31c | 64.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 45c | 62.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 36c | 62.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked Yes | 57c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 22c | 54.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 33c | 46.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 37c | 37.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes | 39c | 36.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 36c | 30.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 46c | 28.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 72c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…b8a5backed Yes | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?this page
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.