TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,081
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,081 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes62c3,741$2,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.0929423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf936…7b96backed Yes13c3,442$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes25c2,496$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.3432814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes55c2,325$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.4623639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes11c1,947$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.145311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3304…4d82backed Yes21c1,723$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes33c1,604$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.0213635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes55c1,586$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.517538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed No48c1,560$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.0615059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes36c1,381$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.7428524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes30c1,330$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40015149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes31c1,283$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.6423321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…ecadbacked Yes12c1,079$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b72…beddbacked No39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6102100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick38cpaid+167.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes11c783.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.17644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c496.3$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.398351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes40c473.2$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.812240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes33c464.5$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5918746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes22c459.77$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.323540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes27c403.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8810544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No65c376.28$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.753461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes40c368.96$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9219532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes26c313.93$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.969021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Yes15c278.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.211330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes16c278.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.292536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No47c276.46$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.8116453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes32c275.09$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes42c220.67$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6211825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f7…35e5backed Yes47c212.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes38c205.4$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.113534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked No80c205.14$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0312631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes28c201.13$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.145925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5d…d896backed Yes59c168.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked No50c159.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.894151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No65c143.75$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7919133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97d…1c2ebacked Yes16c142.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes21c140.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No57c106.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.354721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Yes26c106.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1613820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5911421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c99.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes36c90.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.191050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c88.34$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2467232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddcb…3ad6backed Yes45c87.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-83.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes63c81.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.948461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes55c71.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.971442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b0e…de1abacked Yes31c64.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked No43c62.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.734934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes45c62.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes36c62.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.652441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x681b…8a5abacked Yes57c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes22c54.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.957022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4451…eb72backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes33c46.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.236150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed Yes54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.65444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes37c37.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.835042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes39c36.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.461546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes36c30.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Yes46c28.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No62c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No72c23.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2167…b8a5backed Yes79c16.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No66c16.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.