Movies · resolved market
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aeacddcf827d46ee96bbec191a6d51a5038bdff6f34326e9ef59c26eab9874b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,494$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 18c | 1,275$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.93 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,239$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 13c | 1,206$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.64 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 13c | 1,131$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.89 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 26c | 988.39$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.13 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 1c | 769.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 716.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…fcafbacked Yes | 13c | 576.91$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 498.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…abecbacked Yes | 20c | 300.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 12c | 285.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 31c | 252.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 248.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 63c | 246.35$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 5c | 245.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 58c | 209.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…8598backed Yes | 29c | 199.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 31c | 182$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 69c | 182$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccfb…b83cbacked Yes | 36c | 121.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes | 10c | 112.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cac…3461backed Yes | 18c | 109.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 14c | 107.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…b0d7backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 25c | 55.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?this page
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.