TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3766…abec

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
23
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 31m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.88
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,235Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+104.9%+$1,295.59
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$651Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+176%+$1,145.53
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.44
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.43
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$607.34
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $16m and $17m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$63.61
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$62.58
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.31
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$130.43
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+49.3%+$42.9
Nuggets vs. Bullsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+51.5%+$85
Mavericks vs. Spursbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$23.69
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.