Movies · resolved market
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60a20cc3c5edfee84d9973eeb3256c223daebb23c43afe28506c57685d51fb83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,956 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,147$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.89 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,877$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 7c | 1,627$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 65c | 831.47$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.21 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 22c | 794.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 644.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 639.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 351.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 53c | 278.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…af34backed Yes | 29c | 255.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…a8fabacked No | 71c | 255.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…27fdbacked No | 70c | 146.65$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…08e1backed Yes | 30c | 146.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…268fbacked Yes | 35c | 143.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 143$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 10c | 108.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 90.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 77c | 69.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…abecbacked Yes | 26c | 43.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?this page
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 16.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.