Movies · resolved market
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a615acd213301dde436be32316fbf72ac4fea5583c99cb555d220b1ab791e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,272 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 71c | 4,645$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.06 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked No | 17c | 4,013$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 22c | 3,011$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.73 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 64c | 2,697$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.56 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 14c | 1,969$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.06 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 79c | 1,709$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 78c | 934.02$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.21 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…2ac6backed No | 2c | 614.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b9…0335backed No | 2c | 562.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 17c | 490.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 16c | 463.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.36 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 418.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.33 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 343.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 15c | 295.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 65c | 255$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 50c | 245.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 64c | 207.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 8c | 202.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…7e64backed Yes | 76c | 200.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 23c | 187.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 165.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 59c | 159.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 33c | 155.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 143$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 20c | 127.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 79c | 127.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 104.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 61c | 101.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 28c | 90.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 62c | 88.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 33c | 86.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 49c | 77.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Yes | 76c | 70.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a7…0d4bbacked Yes | 17c | 61.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +472.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 60.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked Yes | 79c | 60.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 58c | 52.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 52.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…0fd5backed No | 78c | 51.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 60c | 50.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 50c | 49.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 47.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 79c | 47.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 53c | 45.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 39.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 51c | 32.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…9763backed No | 79c | 27.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 26.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 58c | 26.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 43c | 24.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…c536backed No | 72c | 20.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 70c | 19.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 19.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 80c | 18.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 16.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?this page
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 16.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.