Movies · resolved market
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d15be60121d37252c01efc073ce9d3985fa0e923c2a8d65b43e72d68d8cfa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,365 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 76c | 1,805$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.55 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 2c | 1,608$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 20c | 1,140$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.05 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 46c | 805.13$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.15 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 722.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 21c | 602.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 30c | 480.09$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 13c | 395.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 23c | 394.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 29c | 349.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 265.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 66c | 245.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…abecbacked No | 73c | 234.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 11c | 207.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 79c | 178.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 79c | 161.76$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 78c | 92.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 21c | 83.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 76c | 83.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 35c | 51.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 51.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 49.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed Yes | 35c | 43.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…5650backed Yes | 31c | 42.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef3…2ea2backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 78c | 17.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 79c | 16.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?this page
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 16.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.