Movies · resolved market
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85aeabaf243290f14cb623fbb92e58a1978b99a3027aae95aabc39e18398d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,481 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 9,719$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 33c | 3,488$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.97 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 17c | 3,385$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 45c | 2,387$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.72 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,046$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 7c | 1,886$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…444cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,470$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…3d81backed Yes | 4c | 1,159$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 1,099$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.36 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 64c | 1,083$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.67 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 43c | 1,039$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.3 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 68c | 733.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.58 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 23c | 535.52$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 69c | 484.11$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.35 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 443.41$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.22 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…fd23backed Yes | 48c | 441.51$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…7b89backed Yes | 12c | 402.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 389.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 372.34$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 322.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.69 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 316.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 48c | 296$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.94 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 31c | 296$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 268.64$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 42c | 266.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 29c | 255.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 246.65$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 31c | 245$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 15c | 231.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…6020backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 28c | 186.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…7b71backed Yes | 49c | 170.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…5b6fbacked Yes | 45c | 165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 139.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…0b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed No | 61c | 100.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed Yes | 30c | 99.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 11c | 94.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 93.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 90.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 85.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 82.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked No | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked No | 63c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked No | 67c | 62.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 53c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…3e98backed Yes | 41c | 56.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 55.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc8…47d0backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 49.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…3652backed No | 77c | 43.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 42c | 40.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…2fafbacked Yes | 34c | 40.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked No | 63c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 35c | 28.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 28.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…f50abacked No | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 39c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 24.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 68c | 22.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed No | 68c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 69c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?this page
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 16.5m and 18m?Yes won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?No won
- Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 16.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.