TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…93eebacked Yes42c10,848$4,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,285.4129642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes39c4,910$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.5423639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes35c2,500$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked No51c2,443$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.1912936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes31c2,340$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.65714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked No19c2,071$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.92758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes67c1,964$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.981233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed No39c1,954$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes1c1,938$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.0413820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked Yes50c1,885$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.762147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes31c1,857$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3766…abecbacked Yes36c1,796$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.531450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked Yes34c1,398$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb037…71f0backed Yes47c1,015$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb12…70a7backed Yes29c992.51$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes43c928.96$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.643540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed No53c823.15$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.761050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes28c800.2$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.2912030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes39c586.73$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.423243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes34c499.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes76c488.34$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.137860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Yes33c482$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes5c461.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.8217017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed No39c449.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.599034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes57c447.51$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.162832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Yes13c385.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+167.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee3…c539backed Yes61c383.56$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+113.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes21c303.01$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.975925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No56c299.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.5319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x954d…cd39backed Yes62c298.33$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No16c284.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.372686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No36c283.02$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.68332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No46c259.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.31127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed Yes13c257.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.953948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No55c241.26$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes55c235.33$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5511421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes9c229.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.174934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfcc…416cbacked Yes54c203.89$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+230.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes39c201.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.743417.6%6 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.618351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked No75c200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1495837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes54c195.5$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.72240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes77c194.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.477157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes74c188.26$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.45957.6%34 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No12c177.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes29c177.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.554643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No59c166.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9413440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes34c163.6$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.23420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes65c160.66$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7628524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No60c160.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+198.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes79c156.77$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8913635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed No10c143.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.345646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes12c129$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3813534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes44c125.97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.741662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No67c112.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.031553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae29…cf34backed Yes44c107.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e57…6d5cbacked Yes73c105.95$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7223321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce1…a25dbacked Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe659…1e68backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes64c97.73$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8513333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes67c89.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No37c88.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.871643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ea1…4b4dbacked Yes48c80.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c61…db2ebacked Yes37c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+70.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed No56c74.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.839441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes73c71.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No60c70.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1319532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes15c68.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.591612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ba…d348backed Yes46c67.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8d…c245backed Yes60c67.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes68c66.56$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.041872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes41c65.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.82441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4316…adeebacked Yes32c60.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+209.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No41c60.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.43461.8%21 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No17c57.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ccb…e033backed Yes20c55.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+169.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes26c54.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.376137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9205…2aa7backed No59c52.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92e…7f60backed Yes43c49.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…0376backed Yes55c45.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3885…7ca3backed Yes35c43.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a1c…d9cfbacked No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick65cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce8…6414backed Yes50c35.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.731827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f22…5f72backed Yes56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+116.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e35…0d9cbacked Yes47c28.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.14580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No61c26.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166947.8%33 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No54c25.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.753619.4%7 W · 29 L-9.7wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-65.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x4451…eb72backed No51c22.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412544%11 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes58c21.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0216015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.925837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x078c…7551backed No62c19.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…9ae9backed Yes53c18.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe8…6d0abacked Yes53c18.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+42.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes59c17.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bf2…442bbacked Yes60c16.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.