Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e26bdb88b29946b4a8a123f408e3ce859d95637956cab18267347567bac1220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 64c | 8,235$5,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,957.55 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 59c | 6,137$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.28 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 32c | 4,026$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.29 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,697$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,414$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.15 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,468$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 75c | 1,759$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.09 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 1,741$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,200$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 28c | 1,130$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.07 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 20c | 1,012$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 34c | 981.66$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.5 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 56c | 774.87$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.44 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 62c | 689.55$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 38c | 550.06$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.59 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 16c | 533$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 15c | 489.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 54c | 444$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.56 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 10c | 429$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…d348backed Yes | 8c | 386.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 291.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 284.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 260.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 14c | 250.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked No | 66c | 236.13$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 15c | 190.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 183.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 35c | 183.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 17c | 178.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 176.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 148.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 132.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 76c | 126.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 15c | 120.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 66c | 112.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 29c | 102.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 24c | 101.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 20c | 100.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…eaa2backed Yes | 15c | 85.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 77.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 20c | 68.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x740a…51c9backed Yes | 23c | 66.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 21c | 65.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 30c | 58.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf749…bcd4backed Yes | 41c | 51.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…764fbacked Yes | 48c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…0376backed Yes | 23c | 45.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…8dbdbacked Yes | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 35.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed No | 62c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…b2afbacked Yes | 62c | 21.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 54c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e35…0d9cbacked No | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 40m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 31m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.