Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78b9ef43d54cf340163e182140b4204b5dc76b296e99a964f93c4a7d64c1f98f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 3c | 11,150$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.89 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 8c | 8,516$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.52 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 6c | 4,863$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.82 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,657$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,638$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3766…abecbacked No | 49c | 2,531$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 32c | 2,167$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.05 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,937$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.57 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 72c | 1,621$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.39 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 7c | 1,521$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 13c | 1,491$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.38 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 33c | 1,411$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,198$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,171$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 61c | 1,155$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…70a7backed Yes | 29c | 934.77$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed No | 45c | 806.19$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 13c | 785.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 669.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 69c | 646.05$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 7c | 621.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 41c | 554.69$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 6c | 536.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 57c | 469.61$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 4c | 345.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…a25dbacked Yes | 19c | 316.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 4c | 307.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Yes | 11c | 278.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 250.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 55c | 230.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 7c | 226$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 5c | 222.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 32c | 218.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 207.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 25c | 180.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…764fbacked Yes | 27c | 173.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 21c | 166.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 35cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 155.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x740a…51c9backed Yes | 59c | 144.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 64c | 142.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.51 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 133.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 25c | 126.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.92 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 30c | 123.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 60c | 120.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 66c | 116.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 36c | 111.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 13c | 106.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…4129backed Yes | 13c | 102.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 66c | 94.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…0d0bbacked Yes | 60c | 80.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 78.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558d…4f3dbacked Yes | 24c | 76.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Yes | 19c | 72.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 32c | 69.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8054backed Yes | 48c | 64.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0f80backed No | 45c | 63.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 20c | 58.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 40c | 55.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 42c | 54.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae29…cf34backed Yes | 47c | 50.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Yes | 34c | 48.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 38c | 40.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…7f60backed No | 43c | 37.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 79c | 36.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 34.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f4…8969backed Yes | 60c | 26.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…4099backed Yes | 66c | 19.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…9ae9backed No | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 40m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 31m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.