Movies · resolved market
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1630811164ec17dac9b05145e29213338c87a6469df0d7af903f641f660ee1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 16,975$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,798$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 12c | 1,782$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.01 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,691$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 15c | 1,315$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 21c | 1,180$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.89 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,055$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 16c | 1,003$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed No | 73c | 953$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 27c | 941$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked Yes | 27c | 939$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 938.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked No | 73c | 927$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes | 16c | 872$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 15c | 779$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 15c | 749$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes | 7c | 727.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 15c | 724$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 27c | 643.69$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.22 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 441.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 23c | 427.56$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 12c | 415.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 25c | 405.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 4c | 273.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 220.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 11c | 202.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 192.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 31c | 184.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 178.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 21c | 162.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…1c2ebacked Yes | 16c | 123.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 13c | 119.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 23c | 93.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 84.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 14c | 79.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 17c | 73.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 63.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 24c | 63.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 26c | 52.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?this page
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m?No won
- Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.