Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4168795e4e9143c6c12b0a7b98397454038e6091d4bb32dc61a17a1882a5c21c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 70c | 2,000$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.05 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 30c | 1,248$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.24 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 896.39$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 64c | 874.27$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.11 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 741.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…4652backed No | 34c | 670.42$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.61 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed No | 35c | 574.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked No | 25c | 561.9$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked No | 37c | 537.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.04 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…37edbacked Yes | 71c | 457.31$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…bf13backed Yes | 75c | 421.43$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 8c | 318.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 31c | 275.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…cebbbacked Yes | 20c | 261.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…b893backed Yes | 14c | 251.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 39c | 246.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 56c | 229.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 38c | 227.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 38c | 201.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…29c9backed Yes | 79c | 190.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 58c | 189.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 181.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 75c | 167$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 12c | 156.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.83 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 78c | 135.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 31c | 114.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.9wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +291.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 86.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ae…5bcebacked Yes | 63c | 81.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe070…769fbacked No | 37c | 81.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 44c | 76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 75c | 73.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 49c | 72.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…df11backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 27c | 58.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 67c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 52.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…080abacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 27c | 47.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.2wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 38c | 45.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…68e3backed Yes | 67c | 44.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb564…b9e4backed Yes | 75c | 30.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…71afbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 59c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 54c | 24.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 62c | 21.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7588…f732backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 65c | 19.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 64c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6218…f344backed Yes | 67c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.