TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,605 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x302e…00b6backed Yes2c3,730$69 inLost-$69.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c3,028$242 inLost-$241.592,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,330$12 inLost-$12.231,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes3c2,205$71 inLost-$71.471159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2434…05eabacked Yes1c1,262$18 inLost-$18.144325.6%11 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+188.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,151$23 inLost-$22.571,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c1,076$18 inLost-$17.575535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes7c756.98$52 inLost-$51.7424114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes5c517.37$24 inLost-$23.7536113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…cba3backed Yes2c477.58$11 inLost-$11.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb8…f154backed Yes38c431.79$164 inLost-$164.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes12c400$49 inLost-$48.639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes15c389.44$60 inLost-$59.5324732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes5c355.33$16 inLost-$16.4616023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Yes7c300$22 inLost-$221233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Yes6c299.5$18 inLost-$17.9725127.1%68 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No64c286.86$183 inWon+$104.367045.7%32 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No66c280.7$185 inWon+$95.2212232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes37c277.15$103 inLost-$103.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes18c257.91$46 inLost-$45.7727920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801c…a025backed Yes37c200$74 inLost-$745211.5%6 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes10c146.64$15 inLost-$15.1719527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes10c145.95$14 inLost-$14.361824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed No79c123.62$98 inWon+$25.3712421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes37c100$37 inLost-$3744227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf7f…3f90backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$12.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c99.52$13 inLost-$12.5939518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked No63c97.56$61 inWon+$36.261127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes17c93.45$15 inLost-$15.4510024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No67c86.22$58 inWon+$28.5560127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes33c85.23$28 inLost-$27.997326%19 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf6…7521backed No62c48.1$30 inWon+$18.284667.4%31 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cec…ff6ebacked Yes39c46.95$18 inLost-$18.311040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes38c46.9$18 inLost-$17.82812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7172…5e45backed Yes38c46.9$18 inLost-$17.821040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+52.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes36c32.36$12 inLost-$11.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a5c…bb71backed No66c29.27$19 inWon+$9.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No63c20$13 inWon+$7.48145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No61c19.28$12 inWon+$7.5231565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.