TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,646 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes7c2,079$138 inLost-$137.9612232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c1,988$101 inLost-$101.32,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes3c1,301$40 inLost-$40.1466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes5c1,261$59 inLost-$59.131159.6%11 W · 104 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes15c1,148$168 inLost-$168.0824732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes6c942.84$58 inLost-$57.6210824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes7c938.01$63 inLost-$63.0910510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes8c900.44$72 inLost-$72.4939723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes4c792.38$32 inLost-$31.961,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes13c711.07$91 inLost-$91.2863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0af…97fbbacked Yes6c640.82$36 inLost-$36.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes3c555.12$15 inLost-$15.1357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes7c532.15$36 inLost-$36.277915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes8c480.28$36 inLost-$36.339213%12 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes6c461.56$26 inLost-$26.0136113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…d4febacked Yes10c454.82$44 inLost-$43.815930.5%18 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes7c443.19$29 inLost-$28.981,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes7c375.32$27 inLost-$27.22875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes7c248.24$17 inLost-$17.4522926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes6c247.27$14 inLost-$13.65598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes7c244.55$16 inLost-$16.4365623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fa…03e9backed Yes7c243.67$18 inLost-$18.17922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes9c235$22 inLost-$21.6916023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes10c169.68$17 inLost-$16.86532.3%21 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes12c154.99$18 inLost-$18.131040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes7c153.04$11 inLost-$11.0327820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd9…d049backed Yes10c151.3$15 inLost-$14.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb9…94f6backed Yes8c151.18$12 inLost-$12.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf94f…393dbacked Yes7c149.39$11 inLost-$10.95825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes7c146.06$10 inLost-$10.3510840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes12c143.3$17 inLost-$16.753010%3 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes11c140.77$15 inLost-$14.869222.8%21 W · 71 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+151.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes9c138.22$12 inLost-$12.441127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c28…4e7dbacked Yes11c136.41$14 inLost-$14.422236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes9c130.35$12 inLost-$11.514528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes9c124.54$11 inLost-$10.9330%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ed…d9b5backed Yes10c120$11 inLost-$11.450%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes15c100$15 inLost-$14.85040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$125418.5%10 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.