Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dcd2710b2c03ccfc959a4082e87e9c912eada148549f72be45852b804eef2b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 1c | 6,071$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97b…ed3bbacked No | 15c | 3,007$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 28c | 1,765$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 25c | 1,702$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed No | 73c | 1,392$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 30c | 1,374$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.59 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 37c | 1,159$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.99 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 75c | 1,135$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 80c | 1,078$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.17 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 19c | 1,051$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.26 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 73c | 1,016$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked No | 4c | 915.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 19c | 832$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 47c | 739.61$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.63 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 28c | 736$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 72c | 736$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 73c | 711.99$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 80c | 642$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 32c | 624$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 68c | 624$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 72c | 617$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 71c | 587.56$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.42 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 20c | 572$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 39c | 525.9$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Yes | 27c | 522$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 27c | 494$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 27c | 470$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 73c | 469.07$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.89 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 27c | 462$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 27c | 460$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed Yes | 19c | 383$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 75c | 367$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 300.67$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.24 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…c4cbbacked Yes | 69c | 290$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 30c | 289.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed No | 60c | 287$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…4addbacked Yes | 67c | 279.19$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 31c | 263.15$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 27c | 251$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…9643backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…4b6fbacked No | 41c | 248.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 27c | 248$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 27c | 239.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…0239backed No | 78c | 221.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 75c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 15c | 190.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…bc1fbacked Yes | 65c | 168.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 159$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…0288backed No | 73c | 136.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 36c | 127.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38a…3dd4backed Yes | 65c | 92.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 21c | 88.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 87.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 76.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 59.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…5588backed No | 71c | 59.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 36c | 47.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 42.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 58c | 35.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 51c | 29.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c4…9c42backed Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213b…a52cbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 50c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…9422backed No | 71c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 67c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.