Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a275e82606a1134bc8c66e41c5e46aa31dccd9fac703c6a851672ca3bcb76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 0c | 3,280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 1c | 3,151$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 29c | 712.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.84 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 17c | 662$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 73c | 572$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 27c | 557$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.39 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 27c | 548$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 73c | 533$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 18c | 525.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 6c | 273.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 20c | 235.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 79c | 122$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 80c | 41.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.