TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,086

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,475 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes64c4,082$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.8217751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No19c3,157$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.5632739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No19c3,056$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58429423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes66c1,820$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.323639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No18c1,495$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed No2c1,149$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.74368.3%3 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b76…9823backed Yes60c861.26$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No16c800$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1282686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes75c790.83$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.712832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed No34c724.16$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.813540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes64c717.69$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3713820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No46c574.05$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.272420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked No8c545.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.233116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked No8c544.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.13644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No36c521.5$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.188247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No41c483.9$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1616453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No8c454$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.321233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes64c443.93$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.097241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c428.83$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.916015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes59c395.89$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.722441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda5…414fbacked No30c367.63$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.67714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes65c358.29$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.429735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked No20c352.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4612936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes62c304.74$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.654429.5%13 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes58c287.48$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6111825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No33c263.51$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.94139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb037…71f0backed Yes69c262.8$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes42c260$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes57c253.74$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.112030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes74c248.73$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+126.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9df1…7776backed No36c225$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a4…cd68backed Yes57c222.42$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c221.72$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1387033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-70.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7368…fd66backed No30c196.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked No29c196.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.215837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No19c170$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.117017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x954d…cd39backed No28c166.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed No25c158.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed No41c156.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-41.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes64c144.46$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.422240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ab…8a17backed Yes70c138.76$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce8…6414backed Yes74c132.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.121827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Yes55c129.28$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.18540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes73c117.3$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70cd…4694backed No34c115.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes71c111.65$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.383240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes71c109.25$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.56758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe54b…6555backed Yes47c106.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa22…5e49backed Yes56c105$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes61c100.26$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.613034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No26c100.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7913333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe42e…a252backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.67520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-74.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No28c97.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.378351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No24c88.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.056855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x103d…b3b2backed Yes77c84.55$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18b…fdf2backed No23c80$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e4…c533backed Yes63c79.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No36c77.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9523130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f3…8249backed Yes66c72.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62e1…dcbbbacked No16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes49c66.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.144643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked No31c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.841030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes54c61.44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2213534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked Yes75c58.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes76c50.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.210042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f6b…e0c0backed No31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…b759backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8a…1f78backed No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.540%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfb5…cf85backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x172d…36cabacked No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf80f…8485backed No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f9…cf15backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f3…08d0backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x494e…fb0bbacked No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4182backed No27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3697…1829backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44dd…11f9backed No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed No38c49.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.766137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked No38c48.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf96e…a9c4backed Yes53c46.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e57…6d5cbacked No29c41.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c38.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes71c38.24$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.175251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb1…702dbacked Yes58c33.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.873100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes52c32.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.542441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes50c28.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6716…95cdbacked Yes66c24.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes66c15.46$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.261668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.