Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc9f64cf94393aee069d26cfc34d307525202ceb6542b4f6a6c734bae6a78a0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,033$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.73 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 7c | 2,925$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed Yes | 17c | 2,767$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 22c | 2,730$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.22 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 2,658$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.76 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 19c | 1,655$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.64 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 14c | 1,533$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.71 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 7c | 907.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 29c | 821.59$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 8c | 766.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 678.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 8c | 605.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 26c | 584.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.43 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 4c | 521.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…7766backed Yes | 5c | 482.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 20c | 463.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 374.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 11c | 353.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Yes | 25c | 330.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 14c | 318.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…3545backed Yes | 5c | 283$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 282.63$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 22c | 264.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 6c | 250.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…86cbbacked Yes | 7c | 248.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 30c | 232.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b3b2backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 16c | 175.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…e9adbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 30c | 147$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 29c | 135.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 29c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 119.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…eb9ebacked Yes | 36c | 117.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 67c | 115.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 18c | 114.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…b856backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 30c | 91.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 30c | 90.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…fdf2backed Yes | 14c | 85.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked Yes | 20c | 78.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…8249backed No | 65c | 73.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…64d7backed No | 71c | 72.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…23dfbacked No | 75c | 64.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb12…70a7backed Yes | 17c | 61.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 39c | 60.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 18c | 56.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 30c | 52.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…9823backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…08d0backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 36c | 49.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed No | 73c | 48.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed Yes | 22c | 45.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 65c | 34.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 71c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 35cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17.5m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 19m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.