Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1235c3f955563cee58d38ff4c5b7ad68bc1c267fd46ae23d37f542930cc9e6bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a0…73f7backed Yes | 3c | 5,985$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,805.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 1,880$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…072fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,700$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 66c | 1,430$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.37 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 41c | 1,395$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.24 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 13c | 980.55$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.91 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 841$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.37 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 818.81$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.79 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed Yes | 63c | 798.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.27 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 4c | 754.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.46 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 741.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.26 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 622.64$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.11 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 45c | 556.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 30c | 542.36$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 7c | 541.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.74 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 8c | 486.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.31 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 477.14$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 12c | 455.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.81 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 10c | 422.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.39 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb8…1fe9backed Yes | 29c | 414.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.24 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 4c | 407.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.55 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 405$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…a99cbacked Yes | 10c | 392.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +860.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 366.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 10c | 312.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa898…71c1backed Yes | 9c | 290.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.06 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 268$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…8427backed Yes | 11c | 241.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +841.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 11c | 234.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.54per pick | 30cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 230$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 224.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 16c | 204.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.35per pick | 19cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…f7edbacked Yes | 19c | 186.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 28c | 178.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 16c | 161.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1313backed Yes | 14c | 159.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 12c | 158.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 44c | 147.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 27c | 146.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 34c | 141.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…ff0ebacked Yes | 13c | 136.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +99%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 8c | 136.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a26bbacked Yes | 14c | 132.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +376.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb506…5f29backed Yes | 23c | 129.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 128.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 44c | 125.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 124.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607d…d2f4backed Yes | 44c | 112.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 9c | 112.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…0e0cbacked Yes | 28c | 99.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 90.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…2ee5backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 83.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…9c24backed Yes | 26c | 76.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +283.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 60.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ded…fbcdbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…33e2backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed Yes | 37c | 48.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 36.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 69c | 35.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $77-$84 in June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.